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Cognitive toolkit

Concepts for enhanced reasoning

Explore my go-to concepts for enhanced reasoning that have transformed the way I approach decision-making and problem-solving.

Mental models

A collection of powerful mental models and frameworks designed to optimize effective thinking and decision-making.

First principles thinking

First principles thinking

The first principles mental model is an analytical way of thinking that breaks down a problem into its fundamental components and evaluates them individually to reach logical and original conclusions.

Second order thinking

Second order thinking

The second-order thinking mental model helps us evaluate our decisions by considering not only their immediate outcome but also the events that may occur afterwards. It is a way of thinking that seeks to predict a chain of possible future events.

Pareto principle (80/20)

Pareto principle (80/20)

The Pareto Principle (80/20) mental model states that approximately 80% of the results come from 20% of the causes or efforts. In other words; a minority of factors is responsible for the majority of the results.

Metacognitive self-reflection

Metacognitive self-reflection

Metacognitive self-reflection is a mental model that emphasizes the conscious evaluation and analysis of our own thought processes in order to improve our reasoning for making more effective decisions and learning more efficiently.

Counterfactual thinking

Counterfactual thinking

The counterfactual thinking mental model is the ability to imagine and analyze alternative scenarios to past or present events. It allows us to reflect on how things could have been if circumstances had been different.

Probabilistic thinking

Probabilistic thinking

The probabilistic thinking mental model is a way of thinking that uses probability to evaluate and make decisions. It is based on the idea that future events are uncertain and uses available information to calculate probabilities and make informed decisions.

Thought experiments

Thought experiments

The thought experiments mental model is a tool that allows us to imagine and simulate situations in our mind to understand how they would work in reality. It helps us make informed decisions and anticipate possible outcomes.

Inversion

Inversion

The inversion mental model involves evaluating a problem or situation from the end to the beginning. It is a technique that helps identify obstacles and find effective solutions by working in reverse to the conventional process.

Asymmetric bets

Asymmetric bets

The asymmetric betting mental model consists of seeking opportunities where the chances of winning are much greater than the chances of losing. It involves evaluating situations where the potential for significant gains significantly outweighs the risk of loss.

Opportunity costs

Opportunity costs

The opportunity cost mental model is a way of making decisions considering the lost alternatives. It is evaluating the value of what is sacrificed when choosing one option over another.

Compound interest

Compound interest

The compound interest mental model is a way of thinking and making decisions that takes into account the cumulative effect of small changes over time. It is applied in both finance and other aspects of life; where small actions can generate significant long-term results.

Margin of safety

Margin of safety

The margin of safety mental model allows us to statistically evaluate the level of risk and uncertainty we expose ourselves to; providing us with a precise measure of how much security we have and ensuring that it is within the range we seek.

Occam's razor

Occam's razor

The Occam's razor mental model is a rule of thought that states that the simplest explanation is usually the correct one. It seeks to avoid unnecessary complexity and assume the simplest and most direct option.

Hanlon's razor

Hanlon's razor

The Hanlon's razor mental model is a rule of thought that suggests that we should not attribute to malice what can be explained by ignorance or incompetence.

Tarzwell's razor

Tarzwell's razor

The Tarzwell's razor mental model quantifies that the more emotions we associate to a situation; the greater the bias and inaccuracy in our decision-making regarding this situation.

Cognitive biases

Common cognitive biases that can impact rational decision-making and degrade the quality of our decisions.

Availability bias

Availability bias

Availability bias is the tendency to give more importance to information that is quickly accessible or easily remembered; while disregarding other relevant data.

Representativeness bias

Representativeness bias

The representativeness bias is the tendency to judge the likelihood of an event based on how closely it resembles a stereotype or pattern; without considering relevant statistical information.

Anchoring bias

Anchoring bias

The anchoring bias is when our decision-making is influenced by the first information we receive; which affects our ability to objectively evaluate other options.

Primacy effect

Primacy effect

The primacy bias is the tendency to remember and give more value to the information that is presented at the beginning of a series; while forgetting or giving less importance to the information presented later.

Recency effect

Recency effect

The recency bias is the tendency to give more importance to recent information or events; while ignoring or downplaying the relevance of initial information.

Scarcity bias

Scarcity bias

Scarcity bias is the tendency to value more what is limited or difficult to obtain; and to underestimate what is available in abundance.

Loss aversion

Loss aversion

The bias of loss aversion is reflected when people have a tendency to avoid losses at all costs; even if it means missing out on greater opportunities for gain.

Commitment bias

Commitment bias

The commitment bias is the tendency to stick to a previous decision; even when new information is available that suggests it may be incorrect or unfavorable.

Need for closure bias

Need for closure bias

The need for closure bias is the tendency to prefer quick and definite answers; avoiding uncertainty; even if there is not enough information to make an informed decision.

Projection bias

Projection bias

The bias of projection is the tendency to believe that others think and feel in the same way as oneself; without considering their own perspectives or experiences.

Confirmation bias

Confirmation bias

Confirmation bias is the tendency to search for information that confirms our existing beliefs; while ignoring or dismissing evidence that contradicts our preconceived ideas.

Labeling bias

Labeling bias

Label bias is the tendency to judge people based on stereotypes or prejudices associated with their label; such as their race; gender; or social class; instead of evaluating them fairly and objectively.

Decision fatigue

Decision fatigue

The bias of decision fatigue happens when we make less rational or lower quality decisions due to the mental tiredness caused by making many previous decisions.

Selective attention bias

Selective attention bias

Selective attention bias occurs when our mind focuses only on certain stimuli or information; ignoring other relevant aspects of reality.

Emotional impact bias

Emotional impact bias

The bias of emotional impact is the tendency to make decisions based on intense emotions that we experience in a specific moment; instead of objectively considering all the available information.

Hindsight bias

Hindsight bias

The hindsight bias is the tendency to believe that a past event was more predictable or known than it actually was; because of the information available after the event.

Social conformity bias

Social conformity bias

The bias of social conformity is the tendency of people to adopt the opinions and behaviors of others in order to fit in with a group; even if they differ from their own beliefs.

Reciprocity expectation bias

Reciprocity expectation bias

The bias of expectation occurs when we assume that others will treat us the same way we treat them; even though this has never been agreed upon. This bias can change our expectations and the way we perceive social interactions.

Illusion of transparency

Illusion of transparency

The bias of the illusion of transparency is the tendency to overestimate our ability to communicate our thoughts and feelings; believing that others can understand us perfectly.

Self-fulfilling prophecy

Self-fulfilling prophecy

The bias of self-fulfilling prophecy occurs when our own beliefs or expectations about a situation influence how we act; leading to the outcome we anticipated.

Post-decision rationalization

Post-decision rationalization

The bias of post-decision rationalization occurs when we explain and defend our previous decisions; even if they were not optimal; in order to protect our self-esteem and show consistency.

Effort justification bias

Effort justification bias

The bias of effort justification is the tendency to overvalue something that we have put a lot of effort into; even though it may not be as valuable in reality.

Change aversion

Change aversion

The bias of aversion to change is the tendency to prefer stability and resist changes; even when they could be beneficial or necessary.

Control perception bias

Control perception bias

The bias of perception of control is the tendency to overestimate the influence we have over external events; mistakenly believing that we have more control than we actually do.

Group polarization

Group polarization

The bias of group polarization occurs when individuals in a like-minded group start having more extreme and pronounced thoughts because the phenomenon of positive feedback intensifies extreme positions.

Survivorship bias

Survivorship bias

Survivorship bias occurs when we only consider successful or long-lasting cases; ignoring those that failed or did not persist; often because the latter are not as visible or remembered.

Observer bias

Observer bias

This term describes the tendency of a person to assign a higher probability to an event just because they have personally witnessed it. This can lead to an overestimation of the importance or frequency of that event.

Psychological effects, paradoxes, and more

Intriguing psychological effects and paradoxes that shed light on how our minds work and present interesting phenomena to learn more about ourselves.

Mind control paradox

Mind control paradox

The paradox of mind control is the phenomenon in which; when trying to consciously control our thoughts and emotions; we actually lose control. By focusing too much on controlling; instead of accepting and allowing; we become more anxious and limit our mental freedom.

Resilience paradox

Resilience paradox

The paradox of resilience is the psychological phenomenon in which people can experience growth and emotional strength after facing significant adversities and challenges in their lives; contrary to common expectations of suffering and weakening.

Paradox of choice

Paradox of choice

The paradox of choice is the psychological phenomenon in which; despite having options seeming positive (according to the decision theory); an excess of choices can lead to dissatisfaction and difficulty in making decisions; due to anxiety and fear of making a wrong choice.

Consensus decision paradox

Consensus decision paradox

The paradox of consensus decision-making is a psychological phenomenon in which people; when seeking to reach a group agreement; tend to make less risky or innovative decisions than if they were deciding individually; which can limit creativity and the quality of decisions.

Intrinsic and extrinsic motivation paradox

Intrinsic and extrinsic motivation paradox

The paradox of intrinsic and extrinsic motivation is a psychological phenomenon in which the introduction of external rewards can decrease internal motivation and enjoyment of an activity. This happens because it focuses more on the external reward than on the internal gratification.

Negative feedback paradox

Negative feedback paradox

The paradox of negative feedback is the phenomenon in which; although negative feedback is usually more useful for our personal and professional growth; paradoxically; we tend to prefer and value positive feedback more; which can limit our learning and development.

Epistemic luck paradox

Epistemic luck paradox

The paradox of epistemic luck is the contradiction that arises when a person believes to have certain knowledge about something based on random information or experiences; even though there is no logical basis or solid evidence to support such certainty.

Semmelweis paradox

Semmelweis paradox

Semmelweis's paradox is a psychological phenomenon in which people resist changing their behaviors or beliefs; even when clear and compelling evidence is presented to support the need for change.

Hedonic adaptation

Hedonic adaptation

Hedonic adaptation is the psychological process in which individuals tend to return to their usual level of emotional well-being after experiencing both positive and negative changes in their lives; limiting the duration of the impact of those events on their overall happiness.

Dunning-kruger effect

Dunning-kruger effect

The Dunning-Kruger effect is a cognitive bias in which people with limited abilities or knowledge tend to overestimate their own capability and underestimate that of others; due to a lack of awareness of their own limitations.

Baader-meinhof phenomenon

Baader-meinhof phenomenon

The Baader-Meinhof effect is a psychological phenomenon in which; after learning or discovering something new; that 'something' starts to be noticed more frequently in the environment. This happens because of selective attention and sensitization towards previously ignored stimuli.

Goal displacement effect

Goal displacement effect

The goal displacement effect is the human tendency to constantly seek new goals once one has been achieved. Although this may provide a sense of progress; it can also lead to constant dissatisfaction and the never-ending pursuit of accomplishments.

Rationality inadequacy effect

Rationality inadequacy effect

The effect of rationality mismatch is the phenomenon in which people; despite having the ability to think logically and rationally; tend to make decisions based on emotions; intuitions; or cognitive biases; which can lead to suboptimal or contradictory outcomes with logical principles.

Butterfly effect

Butterfly effect

The butterfly effect; derived from chaos theory; refers to how small changes in a system can have significant long-term consequences. It is the idea that a minimal alteration in the present can generate a significant and unpredictable effect in the future.

Implicit social norm effect

Implicit social norm effect

The implicit social norm effect refers to the tendency of individuals to follow the expectations and behaviors of a group without being aware of it. This happens automatically and can influence individual decisions and actions in different social contexts.

Impostor syndrome

Impostor syndrome

The impostor syndrome effect is a psychological phenomenon in which successful individuals feel unworthy of their success and fear being exposed as impostors. Despite evidence of their achievements; they feel insecure and attribute their success to luck or deception.

Diffusion of responsibility

Diffusion of responsibility

The diffusion of responsibility effect refers to the tendency of individuals to feel less individual responsibility when in a group; which can lead to a decrease in ethical decision-making and a lower willingness to help others.

Blame displacement effect

Blame displacement effect

The blame shifting effect refers to the human tendency to attribute the responsibility of our own actions to others; thus avoiding facing feelings of guilt. This defense mechanism allows us to feel less guilty; but it can affect our relationships and conflict resolution.

Firehosing effect

Firehosing effect

The firehosing effect refers to the manipulative communication strategy in which people are bombarded with an overwhelming amount of false information and constant contradictions; making it difficult for them to discern the truth and destabilizing their trust in legitimate sources of information.

Herostratic fame effect

Herostratic fame effect

The effect of herostratic fame is a psychological phenomenon in which people seek notoriety and recognition at any cost; even through destructive or negative acts. It is driven by the need to be seen and remembered; but often results in harmful consequences for the individual and society.

Unintended observer effect

Unintended observer effect

The effect of the involuntary observer refers to the impact that the mere presence of a non-participating observer has on people's behavior; whether it increases their self-awareness; alters their actions; or influences their performance; without the observer intending to do so.

Enthymeme effect

Enthymeme effect

The enthymeme effect is a psychological phenomenon in which people automatically fill in information gaps in an argument with their own beliefs and previous experiences; which can lead to erroneous or biased conclusions.

Einstellung effect

Einstellung effect

The effect of einstellung is the psychological phenomenon in which our mind clings to a known solution; even though there may be a better option yet to be discovered. Ignoring our previous knowledge helps us find innovative and more effective solutions.

Red queen effect

Red queen effect

The red queen effect is a metaphor that explains how organisms must constantly adapt to survive in an environment that is also constantly changing; like an endless race to stay in the same place.

Tragedy of the commons dilemma

Tragedy of the commons dilemma

The tragedy of the commons dilemma effect refers to the tendency of individuals to act in their own individual interest; even when it can lead to a negative outcome for collective well-being. It is the difficulty of cooperating and making decisions that benefit everyone instead of taking advantage of shared resources.

Prisoner's dilemma

Prisoner's dilemma

The prisoner's dilemma effect is a psychological phenomenon in which two individuals face the choice of cooperating or betraying; with uncertainty about how the other will respond. The tendency to maximize short-term personal benefit often leads to suboptimal outcomes for both.

Parkinson's law

Parkinson's law

Parkinson's law states that work expands to fill the available time. This means that if you have a task to complete; it will take more time if you have more time available; regardless of the actual complexity of the task.

Goodhart's law

Goodhart's law

Goodhart's law; in psychology; refers to the observation that when an indicator becomes a goal; it ceases to be a valid indicator. By solely focusing on achieving the goal; other relevant aspects that are crucial for optimal outcomes can be ignored or distorted.

Law of diminishing returns

Law of diminishing returns

The law of diminishing returns is a psychological phenomenon that explains how as we increase the amount of effort or resources invested in a task; the benefit or performance obtained tends to decrease gradually. In other words; it reaches a point where additional effort does not produce proportional results.

Law of truly large numbers

Law of truly large numbers

The law of large numbers is a mathematical phenomenon that describes how; in a large enough set of random numbers; extremely unusual or surprising sequences are likely to appear. These sequences can be so enormous that they seem to defy conventional probabilities.

Brandolini's law

Brandolini's law

The Brandolini's law; also known as the principle of cognitive effort; states that it is easier to spread a false claim than to refute it. This is because refuting a claim requires greater intellectual effort than simply believing it; which can lead to the spread of misinformation.

Network effect

Network effect

The network effect refers to how a product or service becomes more valuable as more people start using it. This increase in value occurs because; with a growing number of users; the features and benefits of the product or service expand and improve; making it more attractive and useful for everyone.