Cognitive toolkit
Concepts for enhanced reasoning
Explore my go-to concepts for enhanced reasoning that have transformed the way I approach decision-making and problem-solving.
Mental models
A collection of powerful mental models and frameworks designed to optimize effective thinking and decision-making.
First principles thinking
The first principles mental model is an analytical way of thinking that breaks down a problem into its fundamental components and evaluates them individually to reach logical and original conclusions.
Second order thinking
The second-order thinking mental model helps us evaluate our decisions by considering not only their immediate outcome but also the events that may occur afterwards. It is a way of thinking that seeks to predict a chain of possible future events.
Pareto principle (80/20)
The Pareto Principle (80/20) mental model states that approximately 80% of the results come from 20% of the causes or efforts. In other words; a minority of factors is responsible for the majority of the results.
Metacognitive self-reflection
Metacognitive self-reflection is a mental model that emphasizes the conscious evaluation and analysis of our own thought processes in order to improve our reasoning for making more effective decisions and learning more efficiently.
Counterfactual thinking
The counterfactual thinking mental model is the ability to imagine and analyze alternative scenarios to past or present events. It allows us to reflect on how things could have been if circumstances had been different.
Probabilistic thinking
The probabilistic thinking mental model is a way of thinking that uses probability to evaluate and make decisions. It is based on the idea that future events are uncertain and uses available information to calculate probabilities and make informed decisions.
Thought experiments
The thought experiments mental model is a tool that allows us to imagine and simulate situations in our mind to understand how they would work in reality. It helps us make informed decisions and anticipate possible outcomes.
Inversion
The inversion mental model involves evaluating a problem or situation from the end to the beginning. It is a technique that helps identify obstacles and find effective solutions by working in reverse to the conventional process.
Asymmetric bets
The asymmetric betting mental model consists of seeking opportunities where the chances of winning are much greater than the chances of losing. It involves evaluating situations where the potential for significant gains significantly outweighs the risk of loss.
Opportunity costs
The opportunity cost mental model is a way of making decisions considering the lost alternatives. It is evaluating the value of what is sacrificed when choosing one option over another.
Compound interest
The compound interest mental model is a way of thinking and making decisions that takes into account the cumulative effect of small changes over time. It is applied in both finance and other aspects of life; where small actions can generate significant long-term results.
Margin of safety
The margin of safety mental model allows us to statistically evaluate the level of risk and uncertainty we expose ourselves to; providing us with a precise measure of how much security we have and ensuring that it is within the range we seek.
Occam's razor
The Occam's razor mental model is a rule of thought that states that the simplest explanation is usually the correct one. It seeks to avoid unnecessary complexity and assume the simplest and most direct option.
Hanlon's razor
The Hanlon's razor mental model is a rule of thought that suggests that we should not attribute to malice what can be explained by ignorance or incompetence.
Tarzwell's razor
The Tarzwell's razor mental model quantifies that the more emotions we associate to a situation; the greater the bias and inaccuracy in our decision-making regarding this situation.
Cognitive biases
Common cognitive biases that can impact rational decision-making and degrade the quality of our decisions.
Availability bias
Availability bias is the tendency to give more importance to information that is quickly accessible or easily remembered; while disregarding other relevant data.
Representativeness bias
The representativeness bias is the tendency to judge the likelihood of an event based on how closely it resembles a stereotype or pattern; without considering relevant statistical information.
Anchoring bias
The anchoring bias is when our decision-making is influenced by the first information we receive; which affects our ability to objectively evaluate other options.
Primacy effect
The primacy bias is the tendency to remember and give more value to the information that is presented at the beginning of a series; while forgetting or giving less importance to the information presented later.
Recency effect
The recency bias is the tendency to give more importance to recent information or events; while ignoring or downplaying the relevance of initial information.
Scarcity bias
Scarcity bias is the tendency to value more what is limited or difficult to obtain; and to underestimate what is available in abundance.
Loss aversion
The bias of loss aversion is reflected when people have a tendency to avoid losses at all costs; even if it means missing out on greater opportunities for gain.
Commitment bias
The commitment bias is the tendency to stick to a previous decision; even when new information is available that suggests it may be incorrect or unfavorable.
Need for closure bias
The need for closure bias is the tendency to prefer quick and definite answers; avoiding uncertainty; even if there is not enough information to make an informed decision.
Projection bias
The bias of projection is the tendency to believe that others think and feel in the same way as oneself; without considering their own perspectives or experiences.
Confirmation bias
Confirmation bias is the tendency to search for information that confirms our existing beliefs; while ignoring or dismissing evidence that contradicts our preconceived ideas.
Labeling bias
Label bias is the tendency to judge people based on stereotypes or prejudices associated with their label; such as their race; gender; or social class; instead of evaluating them fairly and objectively.
Decision fatigue
The bias of decision fatigue happens when we make less rational or lower quality decisions due to the mental tiredness caused by making many previous decisions.
Selective attention bias
Selective attention bias occurs when our mind focuses only on certain stimuli or information; ignoring other relevant aspects of reality.
Emotional impact bias
The bias of emotional impact is the tendency to make decisions based on intense emotions that we experience in a specific moment; instead of objectively considering all the available information.
Hindsight bias
The hindsight bias is the tendency to believe that a past event was more predictable or known than it actually was; because of the information available after the event.
Social conformity bias
The bias of social conformity is the tendency of people to adopt the opinions and behaviors of others in order to fit in with a group; even if they differ from their own beliefs.
Reciprocity expectation bias
The bias of expectation occurs when we assume that others will treat us the same way we treat them; even though this has never been agreed upon. This bias can change our expectations and the way we perceive social interactions.
Illusion of transparency
The bias of the illusion of transparency is the tendency to overestimate our ability to communicate our thoughts and feelings; believing that others can understand us perfectly.
Self-fulfilling prophecy
The bias of self-fulfilling prophecy occurs when our own beliefs or expectations about a situation influence how we act; leading to the outcome we anticipated.
Post-decision rationalization
The bias of post-decision rationalization occurs when we explain and defend our previous decisions; even if they were not optimal; in order to protect our self-esteem and show consistency.
Effort justification bias
The bias of effort justification is the tendency to overvalue something that we have put a lot of effort into; even though it may not be as valuable in reality.
Change aversion
The bias of aversion to change is the tendency to prefer stability and resist changes; even when they could be beneficial or necessary.
Control perception bias
The bias of perception of control is the tendency to overestimate the influence we have over external events; mistakenly believing that we have more control than we actually do.
Group polarization
The bias of group polarization occurs when individuals in a like-minded group start having more extreme and pronounced thoughts because the phenomenon of positive feedback intensifies extreme positions.
Survivorship bias
Survivorship bias occurs when we only consider successful or long-lasting cases; ignoring those that failed or did not persist; often because the latter are not as visible or remembered.
Observer bias
This term describes the tendency of a person to assign a higher probability to an event just because they have personally witnessed it. This can lead to an overestimation of the importance or frequency of that event.
Psychological effects, paradoxes, and more
Intriguing psychological effects and paradoxes that shed light on how our minds work and present interesting phenomena to learn more about ourselves.
Mind control paradox
The paradox of mind control is the phenomenon in which; when trying to consciously control our thoughts and emotions; we actually lose control. By focusing too much on controlling; instead of accepting and allowing; we become more anxious and limit our mental freedom.
Resilience paradox
The paradox of resilience is the psychological phenomenon in which people can experience growth and emotional strength after facing significant adversities and challenges in their lives; contrary to common expectations of suffering and weakening.
Paradox of choice
The paradox of choice is the psychological phenomenon in which; despite having options seeming positive (according to the decision theory); an excess of choices can lead to dissatisfaction and difficulty in making decisions; due to anxiety and fear of making a wrong choice.
Consensus decision paradox
The paradox of consensus decision-making is a psychological phenomenon in which people; when seeking to reach a group agreement; tend to make less risky or innovative decisions than if they were deciding individually; which can limit creativity and the quality of decisions.
Intrinsic and extrinsic motivation paradox
The paradox of intrinsic and extrinsic motivation is a psychological phenomenon in which the introduction of external rewards can decrease internal motivation and enjoyment of an activity. This happens because it focuses more on the external reward than on the internal gratification.
Negative feedback paradox
The paradox of negative feedback is the phenomenon in which; although negative feedback is usually more useful for our personal and professional growth; paradoxically; we tend to prefer and value positive feedback more; which can limit our learning and development.
Epistemic luck paradox
The paradox of epistemic luck is the contradiction that arises when a person believes to have certain knowledge about something based on random information or experiences; even though there is no logical basis or solid evidence to support such certainty.
Semmelweis paradox
Semmelweis's paradox is a psychological phenomenon in which people resist changing their behaviors or beliefs; even when clear and compelling evidence is presented to support the need for change.
Hedonic adaptation
Hedonic adaptation is the psychological process in which individuals tend to return to their usual level of emotional well-being after experiencing both positive and negative changes in their lives; limiting the duration of the impact of those events on their overall happiness.
Dunning-kruger effect
The Dunning-Kruger effect is a cognitive bias in which people with limited abilities or knowledge tend to overestimate their own capability and underestimate that of others; due to a lack of awareness of their own limitations.
Baader-meinhof phenomenon
The Baader-Meinhof effect is a psychological phenomenon in which; after learning or discovering something new; that 'something' starts to be noticed more frequently in the environment. This happens because of selective attention and sensitization towards previously ignored stimuli.
Goal displacement effect
The goal displacement effect is the human tendency to constantly seek new goals once one has been achieved. Although this may provide a sense of progress; it can also lead to constant dissatisfaction and the never-ending pursuit of accomplishments.
Rationality inadequacy effect
The effect of rationality mismatch is the phenomenon in which people; despite having the ability to think logically and rationally; tend to make decisions based on emotions; intuitions; or cognitive biases; which can lead to suboptimal or contradictory outcomes with logical principles.
Butterfly effect
The butterfly effect; derived from chaos theory; refers to how small changes in a system can have significant long-term consequences. It is the idea that a minimal alteration in the present can generate a significant and unpredictable effect in the future.
Implicit social norm effect
The implicit social norm effect refers to the tendency of individuals to follow the expectations and behaviors of a group without being aware of it. This happens automatically and can influence individual decisions and actions in different social contexts.
Impostor syndrome
The impostor syndrome effect is a psychological phenomenon in which successful individuals feel unworthy of their success and fear being exposed as impostors. Despite evidence of their achievements; they feel insecure and attribute their success to luck or deception.
Diffusion of responsibility
The diffusion of responsibility effect refers to the tendency of individuals to feel less individual responsibility when in a group; which can lead to a decrease in ethical decision-making and a lower willingness to help others.
Blame displacement effect
The blame shifting effect refers to the human tendency to attribute the responsibility of our own actions to others; thus avoiding facing feelings of guilt. This defense mechanism allows us to feel less guilty; but it can affect our relationships and conflict resolution.
Firehosing effect
The firehosing effect refers to the manipulative communication strategy in which people are bombarded with an overwhelming amount of false information and constant contradictions; making it difficult for them to discern the truth and destabilizing their trust in legitimate sources of information.
Herostratic fame effect
The effect of herostratic fame is a psychological phenomenon in which people seek notoriety and recognition at any cost; even through destructive or negative acts. It is driven by the need to be seen and remembered; but often results in harmful consequences for the individual and society.
Unintended observer effect
The effect of the involuntary observer refers to the impact that the mere presence of a non-participating observer has on people's behavior; whether it increases their self-awareness; alters their actions; or influences their performance; without the observer intending to do so.
Enthymeme effect
The enthymeme effect is a psychological phenomenon in which people automatically fill in information gaps in an argument with their own beliefs and previous experiences; which can lead to erroneous or biased conclusions.
Einstellung effect
The effect of einstellung is the psychological phenomenon in which our mind clings to a known solution; even though there may be a better option yet to be discovered. Ignoring our previous knowledge helps us find innovative and more effective solutions.
Red queen effect
The red queen effect is a metaphor that explains how organisms must constantly adapt to survive in an environment that is also constantly changing; like an endless race to stay in the same place.
Tragedy of the commons dilemma
The tragedy of the commons dilemma effect refers to the tendency of individuals to act in their own individual interest; even when it can lead to a negative outcome for collective well-being. It is the difficulty of cooperating and making decisions that benefit everyone instead of taking advantage of shared resources.
Prisoner's dilemma
The prisoner's dilemma effect is a psychological phenomenon in which two individuals face the choice of cooperating or betraying; with uncertainty about how the other will respond. The tendency to maximize short-term personal benefit often leads to suboptimal outcomes for both.
Parkinson's law
Parkinson's law states that work expands to fill the available time. This means that if you have a task to complete; it will take more time if you have more time available; regardless of the actual complexity of the task.
Goodhart's law
Goodhart's law; in psychology; refers to the observation that when an indicator becomes a goal; it ceases to be a valid indicator. By solely focusing on achieving the goal; other relevant aspects that are crucial for optimal outcomes can be ignored or distorted.
Law of diminishing returns
The law of diminishing returns is a psychological phenomenon that explains how as we increase the amount of effort or resources invested in a task; the benefit or performance obtained tends to decrease gradually. In other words; it reaches a point where additional effort does not produce proportional results.
Law of truly large numbers
The law of large numbers is a mathematical phenomenon that describes how; in a large enough set of random numbers; extremely unusual or surprising sequences are likely to appear. These sequences can be so enormous that they seem to defy conventional probabilities.
Brandolini's law
The Brandolini's law; also known as the principle of cognitive effort; states that it is easier to spread a false claim than to refute it. This is because refuting a claim requires greater intellectual effort than simply believing it; which can lead to the spread of misinformation.
Network effect
The network effect refers to how a product or service becomes more valuable as more people start using it. This increase in value occurs because; with a growing number of users; the features and benefits of the product or service expand and improve; making it more attractive and useful for everyone.